Joe Burrow’s final grade ranks only behind Andrew Luck for the highest I’ve assigned in the last decade. pic.twitter.com/xBbe9xqMLP
— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) March 31, 2020
I have avoided writing about sports for the past couple of weeks because I’ve been just too depressed to think about there being no March Madness or Opening Day this year. But we are only a couple of weeks away from the NFL Draft and we know for 100% sure that IS happening. This is something we can actually get excited about because I am very confident we will have an NFL season, whether we start the season with fans in the stadium or not. This is also an absolutely loaded draft when it comes to exciting offensive players. It is one of the most loaded wide receiver classes we have ever seen, plus one of the most exciting prospects in draft history with Joe Burrow. In fact, the draft is so loaded with star power that somehow Tua Tagovailoa, one of the most exciting college football players we’ve ever seen, has kind of been swept to the side. If Tua is healthy, he is still capable of being a star quarterback at the next level. But who is the best of the best, you ask? Let’s take a look at this list of offensive rookie of the year with odds.
Joe Burrow is deservedly the heavy favorite and is followed by Tua at +650. Justin Herbert is the only other quarterback that makes the list at +1400. D’Andre Swift is the top running back on the list at +750 and is followed by Jonathon Taylor, JK Dobbins, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The three wide receivers at the top of the list are Jerry Jeudy, Ceedee Lamb, and Henry Ruggs III. Like I said earlier, this list is incredibly loaded. As far as where to bet, let’s take a look at the past winners by position.
These numbers shocked me when I first saw them. I would have thought quarterbacks would have won a lot more times than this, but there you have it. Kyler Murray in 2019 and Dak Prescott in 2016 are the only quarterbacks to win the award the last seven years and Cam Newton and Kyler Murray are the only #1 overall picks to win in the last nine years. The last crazy statistic is that the last THIRTEEN awards have gone to an NFC player. I don’t know if there is any real correlation there, but it’s honestly astonishing.
So, let’s get down to who I like. I’m staying away from Joe Burrow just because no value exists there. My two bets are going to be Tua and Ceedee Lamb. I am not particularly high on any of these running backs so, despite the numbers supporting them, I’m staying away from this group. Ceedee Lamb is my favorite receiver in this group and the fact that Jeudy is supposed to go ahead of him will only help Ceedee get to a better team. I think he could have a monstrous year. Then we have Tua. I think he is going to be a Week One starter wherever he goes and he is more than capable of replicating the season Kyler Murray just had in Arizona that won him the award. He and Joe Burrow are the only quarterbacks I trust in this draft and between the value and potential upside that’s where I’m putting my money.
Let’s roll with Tua at +650 and Ceedee at +1600. Time to sit back, enjoy the draft, hope they get put in good situations, and then live up to the hype.