Hello, friends. *extremely Jim Nance voice* I am Blakey Locks, the Degenerate Gambling Intern, and I will be your guide this fall. Every weekend I am going to traverse you through the trials and tribulations of betting your mortgage on a weekend of football. From the New England Patriots to the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks, I will give you the knowledge necessary to conquer your bookie and feed your children. We will win together, lose together and laugh together. Let’s ride.
It’s been a long, treacherous football season. We’ve had some dominant winning weekends and some catastrophic losing weekends. At the end of the day, that’s what makes gambling so damn great. You can reach the highest of highs and it’s inevitable that you will fall, and when you get DEEP into the hole you can only get out by betting more. However, despite the rollercoaster of the last 13 weeks, bowl season will define everything. From Championship Weekend through the National Championship game you can either climb out of a hole, extend your lead on the bookie, or drop into a pit of debt. That’s why I’m here for you, pals. We’re going to have a few laughs and get rich, together.
Stat of the Week
I know a lot of y’all come here for the jokes, but sometimes you need to get into the nerd stats if you actually want to win. I apologize and accept all wedgies and swirlies coming my way.
This is actually wild. If you are a rookie in the betting game, betting against the public is a pretty basic strategy. Vegas ALWAYS wins, which naturally means if a majority of the public is on one side, it will lose more often than not. But these numbers are way higher than normal. So high in fact that I had to create a brand new segment just to talk about it. Going at all against the public wins at 58% and going against big public bets is winning at 62%. That’s a crazy level of success. Now I’m not gonna tell you to go straight up against the public, but if there are any staggering public numbers I would recommend a fade.
This weekend on that 62% winning trend we have these teams are getting:
Ohio State- 72%
Boise State- 74%
So if you have any interest in testing out this trend, fade those five teams. Sorry, done being a nerd now.
Girlfriend Game of the Week
My girlfriend watches almost no football. She knows nothing about any teams. Luckily gambling is all about raw instinct. It’s a gamble after all. Every week I am going to ask her out of the blue who is going to win a certain game. There’s a good chance these picks win at a higher percentage than mine. (5-1)
Last week was a wild ride for the GGW. It survived 7 OTs and the highest scoring game in FBS history. We were riding LSU +3 which seemed like a winner for a long time then A&M scored their miracle TD to put the game in OT. Then it was a rollercoaster of back and forth scores and weird penalties. A&M came out on top but we walked away with our LSU +3 ticket and the GGW is now FIVE AND ONE. I am legitimately furious. I actually considered not doing it again this week because it makes me so mad that my girlfriend is winning at this type of percentage. I’m unhappy but here we go. This week we’re looking at the Mountain West Championship Game between Fresno State and Boise State.
It’s a National Championship rematch with MAJOR #CFBPlayoff implications!
Before the SEC Championship game, come see us at International Plaza. Show starts at 9am. See you there! pic.twitter.com/f4a1uI6e36
— College GameDay (@CollegeGameDay) November 29, 2018
The fun is over. It’s time to get down to business. You naturally want to bet the games you’re going to watch. So, I have the “Mountains are Blue Ice Cold Locks” for the featured games of the weekend right here.
Georgia vs. Alabama (-13) o/u 63.5
— Southeastern Conference (@SEC) November 27, 2018
This is the big one, folks. The winner is for sure in the playoff. Even if Georgia wins, there is a chance both teams will make it. Personally, I think that both teams should. A one-loss Alabama, whose only loss is to Georgia, would have a better one loss than Oklahoma and Ohio State, and for sure passes the eye test better than those two. I’ll also be able to laugh at Danny Kanell’s inevitable mental breakdown if that happens. However, as a UGA hater I want the Tide to pull this one out so that Georgia can’t win a National Championship. We were so close to a UGA-Clemson National Championship game last year and I think I would actually have to boycott that event. I also think an Oklahoma-Bama matchup would be kind of fun. Bama would blow em out still, but it would be fun to see what Kyler could do against that defense.
All that being said, I think this will be a similar game to last year’s Natty. Alabama is a better team than last year, but people don’t realize how good Georgia has been the past few weeks. They are playing just as well as they were in their playoff run last year. I think Alabama will once again face a true test in the Dawgs.
It Just Means More Danny Kanell You Bum Lock of the Century: UGA +13
Northwestern vs. Ohio State (-14) o/u 61
TWO 👏 MORE 👏 DAYS
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) November 29, 2018
Poooor pooooor Michigan. What an absolute sham of a football team and program. They were supposed to be “the real deal” this year and then they just came out and got embarrassed by their arch rival. Unfortunately for State Ohio, they still have a tough road to the CFP. They will need Georgia and Oklahoma to lose to slide into that #4 spot and have the pleasure of losing to Alabama. Now, this is a weird game because Northwestern is not that talented of a team but have found ways to win games all year. Meanwhile, State Ohio is incredibly talented but before their Michigan win, they had played like utter trash. So this one is really about who comes to play on Saturday. The answer plain and simple is that Northwestern is going to show up because of this man right here.
What a fucking unit. If I had this guy in my life I would not be blogging at 7:30 on a Thursday night, I’ll tell you that much. I’m shocked my mom hasn’t paid this guy to give me a real kick in the ass yet. Whatever Northwestern is paying Alex Spanos, I (my mom) will double it to be my new life coach.
I think State Ohio pulls this one out, but I’m taking two touchdowns with Alex Spanos on my side. This team is not going to quit like those losers at Michigan did.
I’m Wearing a Shmedium Polo and Beanie Out to the Bars This Weekend Lock of the Week: NW +14
Texas vs. Oklahoma (-8)
— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) November 24, 2018
Assuming Alabama beats Georgia, this is basically a play-in game for Oklahoma. They are currently ranked ahead of State Ohio and Texas would be a better win than Northwestern so I don’t think it’s possible for them to get jumped if they win. In addition, Oklahoma’s only loss is to Texas so it’s basically saying “the only team we weren’t better than before we are better than now.” So Oklahoma has a chance to make the CFP for the second year in a row after it seemed like they had no shot a few weeks ago. Also, despite some bad losses and an Asian massage parlor jerk off scandal, Texas has made it to the Big 12 Championship game. Betting Texas football this year has been incredibly simple, you fade them as a favorite and you bet them as a dog. Also, the way Oklahoma’s defense plays I don’t trust them to beat anybody by multiple scores. I do think Oklahoma will pull this out and sneak their way into the CFP, but Texas covers the number.
Ok Cool. Hook Em Lock of Championship Weekend: Texas +8
This guide is meant to be fun, but if you came here for picks I will indulge you. Here are the locks of the week outside the Marquee Matchups.
Here are all of my picks outside of the GGW and the Marquee Matchups. Obviously, it’s a small slate this weekend:
Memphis +3.5 vs. UCF
NIU +3.5 vs. Buffalo
Marshall +4 vs. VT
UAB +1 vs. MTSU
Shameless Plug of the Week: Listen to my podcast here for a FULL Championship Weekend Preview and some fun segments about College Football coaches teaching classes and a dynamite teaser- https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/longshot-locks/id1440550176?mt=2#episodeGuid=http%3A%2F%2F811sports.com%2F%3Fp%3D1776