zimmytws / Shutterstock.com
Nicole Lynn couldn’t resist a little victory lap Tuesday morning.
“Anybody have a brinks truck?” Robinson’s agent wrote on social media at 8:06 a.m. ET, tossing in an eyes emoji for good measure.
Minutes earlier, the news had broken: Bijan Robinson was about to become the highest-paid running back in the NFL. The Atlanta Falcons locked him up through 2030 on a three-year extension that could pay out as much as $75 million if he hits every incentive tied to it.
That number matters beyond Atlanta, though.
Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs – a fellow 2023 first-rounder with a nearly identical resume – just got handed a new number to point to in his own extension talks.
Two backs, one argument
Robinson and Gibbs, both 24, are walking case studies against the tired NFL argument that running backs aren’t worth real money. You’ve heard the theory before: don’t pay a veteran back, just draft another one late and plug him in. Why invest heavily in a position teams can restock so cheaply?
That logic falls apart when you actually watch these two play.
Robinson might be the most complete back in the league right now – powerful, but shifty enough to make defenders miss; a legitimate receiving threat; someone who’ll actually stick his face in there and pass block. Gibbs is different, more of a home-run threat. He’s got the acceleration and the top-end speed to turn a five-yard gain into a touchdown, and he makes defenders miss in spaces where most backs get swallowed up.
Even while sharing carries with veteran backs early in their careers, both Robinson and Gibbs have already topped 5,000 yards from scrimmage through three NFL seasons. Among today’s backs, only Christian McCaffrey and Ezekiel Elliott have managed that. Go back further and you’re talking about names like LaDainian Tomlinson and Eric Dickerson.
The real question isn’t whether these two are good. It’s whether they can stay this good long enough to justify what they’re being paid.
The shelf-life problem
Robinson was already under contract through 2027 – the Falcons had picked up his fifth-year option – so this new deal tacks on additional years, running through 2030. He’ll be 29 when it’s up.
Gibbs is in a similar spot. He’s also under contract through 2027 with Detroit, and he’s now looking for that same kind of long-term security.
Quarterbacks these days play into their late 30s, sometimes their 40s. Offensive linemen can still be effective well into their mid-30s. Even a receiver or edge rusher will occasionally defy the clock.
Running backs don’t get that luxury.
The position takes a beating unlike any other, and it lives and dies on burst and explosiveness – two things that fade fast. Derrick Henry, Frank Gore, Tiki Barber; these guys are exceptions, not the rule, in a league littered with backs who fell off hard in their mid-to-late 20s.
Todd Gurley was only 23 when the Rams gave him a four-year, $58 million extension back in 2018. Two years later, he was gone, his knees no longer allowing him to be the explosive back the Rams paid for.
Elliott’s story isn’t much different. He was 24 when Dallas handed him a six-year, $90 million deal in 2019 after he’d won two rushing titles. Injuries and a drop in efficiency pushed the Cowboys to move on well before that contract ran its course.
Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson belong right up there on the list of running back contracts gone wrong too. Devonta Freeman and DeMarco Murray aren’t far behind them either.
But not every gamble goes bad
For every cautionary tale, there’s a counterexample sitting right next to it.
Saquon Barkley made the Eagles look brilliant for betting on him, helping deliver a Super Bowl win in February 2025. McCaffrey has been a walking mismatch since San Francisco traded for him back in October 2022. Jonathan Taylor has more than lived up to his three-year, $42 million extension in Indianapolis. And Henry, somehow, just keeps going – Father Time hasn’t caught up to him yet.
There’s also this: running back contracts simply don’t carry the same risk they used to, financially speaking.
McCaffrey’s average salary of $19 million a year is actually lower than what receivers like Alec Pierce, Christian Watson and Chris Godwin are making. And Robinson’s new deal looks like a bargain next to the four-year, $140 million extension receiver Zay Flowers signed with the Ravens – on the very same Tuesday, no less.
So yes, the Falcons needed a brinks truck to keep Robinson through 2030. And yes, the Lions will probably need one soon for Gibbs. Both teams are betting on a position where staying elite long-term is basically a coin flip.
But the price tag isn’t anywhere close to what teams pay at other premium positions, and both Robinson and Gibbs have shown enough to make the bet worth taking.
For the Falcons and the Lions, this is a risk worth taking.
