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Kirk Cousins is the Raiders’ Week 1 starter. Nobody’s shocked.
Las Vegas said this was the plan all along, and they didn’t blink. Fernando Mendoza, the No. 1 overall pick, will have to wait his turn.
New head coach Klint Kubiak wasn’t shy about this. Back in March – a full month before the Raiders even drafted Mendoza – he was already talking about sitting a rookie quarterback.
“I think it does help [a rookie QB] if they can sit behind a mature adult and watch how they run the show,” Kubiak said at the league’s spring meetings that month. Keep in mind, the Raiders hadn’t even signed Cousins yet. That happened a week later.
History says the Raiders are doing something unusual here. Mendoza becomes the first No. 1 overall quarterback since Baker Mayfield in 2018 to not start his team’s season opener. Mayfield and Jared Goff (who sat two years before that) were outliers too – the first top picks at quarterback to open on the bench since JaMarcus Russell back in 2007.
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For a minute this preseason, it looked like the plan might change. Mendoza struggled against Houston’s backups, and Kubiak still wouldn’t commit to a starter. He said he didn’t want “anyone to be comfortable in their job.”
Eleven days later, Cousins got the nod for Week 1 against Miami. He shouldn’t get too comfortable either – everyone knows Mendoza is the future in Las Vegas. The question is just how far off that future actually is.
The itchy-trigger-finger option
Some coaches can’t wait to throw a rookie into the fire. Doug Pederson was one of them once. His Eagles drafted Carson Wentz second overall, and the plan was for Wentz to sit behind veteran Sam Bradford – until Philly traded Bradford to Minnesota and Wentz became the Week 1 starter almost overnight.
Pederson made his opinion on Mendoza pretty clear in July: the Raiders should start Mendoza immediately.
“Let’s get this guy out there Week 1, let’s start having our growing pains Week 1,” Pederson said, via CBS Sports. “Let’s not prolong it into October or November or later in the season. Let’s get him out there now. Let’s get him working with the guys that he’s going to be working with.”
Is a September promotion realistic? Recent history suggests it’s not out of the question. Draft position tends to matter a lot.
Look at the five draft classes from 2021 through 2025. Seventeen quarterbacks went in the first round. Ten of them started Week 1 as rookies. Four more got the job within their first four games.
That leaves just three who waited longer. Kenny Pickett didn’t start until Week 5. J.J. McCarthy missed his whole rookie year with a knee injury. And Michael Penix Jr., coming off an ACL tear, was always expected to sit behind Cousins in Atlanta.
The pattern is obvious. First-round rookies play, and they play early. That’s exactly why a start sometime in the season’s first quarter or third isn’t far-fetched for Mendoza.
Miami might look like a manageable Week 1 matchup, but Cousins’ Falcons actually lost to the Dolphins last year. Things don’t get easier after that either – back-to-back road trips against the Chargers and Saints, then the Chiefs at home, a trip to New England, and home dates with the Bills and Rams.
Vegas is favored in the opener. After that? Underdogs in six straight. A 1-6 start wouldn’t shock anyone, and if it happens, expect the calls for a quarterback change to get loud fast – even if Cousins isn’t really the problem.
Don’t put too much stock in how enthusiastically (or not) Kubiak talks about Mendoza publicly. Coaches play their own game with information, and they’re not handing out details for free.
Sound familiar? A year ago, Giants coach Brian Daboll gave Jaxson Dart some pretty measured praise after naming Russell Wilson his starter. He talked about needing to see growth. It read like a coach trying to give his new veteran some room to operate.
Three games and an 0-3 start later, Dart had the job. Sometimes that rope is shorter than it sounds.
The his-time-will-come plan
Let’s take Kubiak at his word for a second. Maybe the Raiders really are ready to be the next 2003 Bengals, who parked Carson Palmer on the bench behind Jon Kitna for an entire season.
What happens if Cousins actually plays well? What if Las Vegas starts winning some of these games nobody expects them to win? Suddenly this decision gets a lot more complicated for Kubiak.
Cousins wasn’t bad down the stretch in Atlanta last season. A team sitting at 4-8 in December somehow flirted with a playoff spot. Outside of one bad loss to Seattle, he was playing solid football.
Las Vegas doesn’t have Atlanta’s overall talent at the skill positions, but tight end Brock Bowers is a legitimate difference-maker, and there’s some other useful pieces around him too. Kubiak’s offensive system fits this roster reasonably well.
Every single one of Cousins’ drives in the preseason ended in points this August. Field goals mostly, not touchdowns – but points nonetheless.
“I see a guy that’s leading the offense,” Kubiak said.
So Cousins playing well factors into this equation. But Kubiak has also said Mendoza will get his shot when he’s ready, and not because of anything happening around him. Mendoza’s preseason was inconsistent, and it wasn’t always against first-string competition. His rough outing against Houston came versus their second-teamers.
The last thing Kubiak wants is to pull a decent Cousins and hand the job to a Mendoza who isn’t ready yet. The long-term picture matters most, sure, and Mendoza can’t sit forever – but a first-year head coach doesn’t want to find himself flipping back to Cousins after making the switch too early.
Here’s a natural breaking point: Las Vegas has its bye in Week 13. Not exactly perfect timing, but it’s there. Think of this as basically the floor for when Mendoza debuts – coming off the bye against the Chargers at home, kicking off a stretch of three straight home games. That would leave him five games to close out the season and build some momentum heading into 2027.
Somewhere right in the middle
If September feels too soon and December feels way too late, there’s a middle ground worth considering.
Week 8. At the Jets.
Why there? It’s the first spot on the schedule that makes real sense, assuming Cousins hasn’t completely fallen apart by then. Even a hot 2-1 start for Las Vegas probably doesn’t survive the Chiefs-Patriots-Bills-Rams stretch that follows the opener.
There’s a fun angle here too – Mendoza was born in Boston and grew up idolizing Tom Brady, even after his family moved to Miami. Starting his first career game at Foxborough would make for a nice story. But that can’t be the reasoning. This has to be a football decision first. You don’t want Mendoza trading haymakers with Josh Allen one week and then facing down Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald the next.
The Jets represent about as low-pressure a landing spot as this schedule offers. It sits roughly at the midpoint of the season. Starting there would give Mendoza 10 starts as a rookie – six on the road, four at home. The bye week lands right in the middle of that stretch too, giving both Mendoza and the coaching staff a chance to regroup before a friendlier December slate. If Mendoza still isn’t ready by Week 8, that’s probably a bigger concern for the franchise than just this season.
None of this means Mendoza needs to be wrapped in bubble wrap. He’s going to have to go up against elite defenses and star quarterbacks eventually, and getting a taste of that as a rookie makes sense. But there’s a real difference between throwing him to the wolves too early and not giving him enough snaps before year two starts.
Kubiak has a balancing act ahead of him. But one thing should be non-negotiable: Mendoza has to play meaningful snaps this season. Everything else is secondary.
