The 2025 NFL season will be remembered as the year of the upset. Carolina won the NFC South at 8-9, claiming their first divisional title since 2015 after a three-way tiebreaker fell in their favor. The Bears seized the NFC North at 11-6 in Ben Johnson’s debut season. Denver climbed to 14-3 and claimed their first AFC West crown since 2015, snapping Kansas City’s streak at a record-breaking nine straight. Jacksonville went 13-4 and torched Tennessee by 34 points to clinch the AFC South on the final day. New England reached the Super Bowl, despite being +8000 betting outsiders, to lift the Lombardi, an upset the Seattle Seahawks ultimately prevented.
So, with the NFL wider open than ever before, which divisions look set to be the tightest in 2026? Let’s take a look.
NFC South
What does it say about a division when any of four teams could plausibly claim the title — and none of them frighten you enough to lay heavy money on? Only the NFC South could produce a champion at 8-9, three teams finishing level at the top, and a tiebreaker resolution so convoluted it required head-to-head arithmetic across a three-way logjam. Carolina took the crown at 3-1 against the other two finishers, while the Saints went 5-12 after pivoting to Tyler Shough at quarterback. Atlanta fired Raheem Morris and GM Terry Fontenot hours after winning their final game, a 20-25 record and 36-48 tally, producing zero playoff appearances between them. Bumper cars in the dark, as ever.
The bookies make Tampa Bay the narrowest of favorites to top the quartet. The latest odds from https://www.luckyrebel.la position them as a +195 frontrunner, primarily thanks to them claiming three straight divisional titles before the Panthers upset the odds last term. If Baker Mayfield can showcase the kind of MVP-caliber form he displayed throughout the first half of 2025 — and he likely will as he plays for his future in his contract year — then it’s hard to argue with them being the team to beat.
New Orleans at +275 is the momentum play. Shough looked legitimate in his limited starting run, and the offseason has unlocked a completely different offensive ceiling — Travis Etienne arriving in free agency, David Edwards shoring up the guard room, and Jordyn Tyson drafted eighth overall to pair with a career-year Chris Olave. Kevin Stefanski has inherited Bijan Robinson, a defence that recorded a record-setting 57 sacks in 2025, and Tua Tagovailoa on a veteran-minimum deal with +325 shot at Atlanta. And then there’s defending champions Carolina, who are a live underdog at +325 as Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd look to aid Bryce Young’s slow but steady ascent.
AFC West
Kansas City surrendered the AFC West after nine consecutive years of ruling over the division with an iron fist. Patrick Mahomes’s knee injury was ultimately the final nail in the coffin, with the three-time Super Bowl champion going down in the late-season loss to the Chargers, a defeat that confirmed the Chiefs’ fate. Denver seized the initiative, finishing 13-4 after a slew of fourth-quarter comebacks before an injury nightmare of its own curtailed their season: Bo Nix going down in that thrilling Divisional Round win against the Buffalo Bills.
Chiefs dynastic perfection? Dead. Eagles crown? Snatched. Inside The Year the NFL Broke: how it actually happened.
🔗 https://t.co/n6Ei6Rkwtr— Lucky Rebel (@LuckyRebel__) January 28, 2026
Despite their woes 12 months ago, can anyone ever truly bet against the Kansas City Chiefs? Mahomes is back, and after a decade of near dominance, it’s unsurprising to see that the bookies make them the +170 favorites to reclaim their throne. Kenneth Walker III has since arrived on a three-year, $45 million deal to address a backfield void, while L’Jarius Sneed is back, and Makai Lemon out of USC was selected in the first round of the draft.
But if the Chiefs’ dynasty is officially over, then the +190-priced Chargers might represent the sharpest value. Jim Harbaugh’s team has rebuilt the interior offensive line with Tyler Biadasz, Cole Strange, and Trevor Penning — finally giving Justin Herbert the protection his talent has demanded since he arrived. Denver at +220 is the defending champion, and Jaylen Waddle — acquired from Miami for a first-round pick and multiple selections — gives Bo Nix a dynamic second weapon alongside Courtland Sutton. All three will feel that they can win this division and, indeed, perhaps the Super Bowl.
NFC North
Is there a more compelling continuity argument in the NFC North than a team that finished 11-6 in a head coach’s debut season while retaining every coordinator and its franchise quarterback heading into Year 3? The Bears claimed the division, led the NFL with 33 takeaways and a plus-21 turnover differential, and recorded their first postseason win since 2010 with a wild-card victory over Green Bay before a Divisional Round exit to the Rams. But despite that, it’s Detroit — who went 9-8 and missed the playoffs despite Goff’s brilliance — who the bookies make the +150 frontrunners to reign as Kings of the North.
A bet on the Lions is a bet that Dan Campbell’s culture doesn’t unravel after one difficult year, that Goff remains elite, and that Jahmyr Gibbs carries the load while Amon-Ra St. Brown, Brock Wright, and Sam LaPorta enter contract years with something to prove. But following the departures of David Montgomery and Frank Ragnow, this is unquestionably a thinner roster than the one that went to the NFC Championship in 2024.
Should the bounce back not come to fruition, then Green Bay at +250 is the most likely next in line. You’re betting on Jordan Love returning to full form after an injury-disrupted 2025 and Micah Parsons eventually coming off the PUP list to make the defence genuinely dangerous. That’s two significant recovery arcs priced into one ticket.
Minnesota at +525 is the spec play — Kyler Murray gives the Vikings a quarterback upgrade that could be dramatic if Justin Jefferson and the surrounding cast click. Chicago, the defending champions, are surprisingly out at +325, and they could be the value play. Caleb Williams is entering his first offseason with genuine system familiarity — only team in the division retaining the same offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, and starting quarterback — and Johnson’s development track record suggests another meaningful leap is extremely plausible.