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Shedeur Sanders falling outside the top five picks in the 2025 NFL Draft? I can buy that. But dropping past the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 6? No way. Yet that’s exactly what ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. is predicting in his latest mock draft, sending Sanders to the New York Jets at No. 7 — behind Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty, of all players.
Look, I get it. It’s February. We’re barely 40-something days into 2025, and everyone’s cranking out mock drafts like there’s no tomorrow. But Kiper’s projection feels more like fantasy than reality. The Raiders aren’t passing on a quarterback with Sanders’ talent still on the board — in fact, they’re more likely to trade up to Cleveland’s No. 2 spot to make sure they get him.
There’s some irony here that’s too good to ignore. If Sanders does land with the Jets, he’d be replacing Aaron Rodgers — the poster child for draft-day slides after his infamous 2005 free-fall from potential first overall pick to 24th selection.
The Rodgers-Sanders Connection
Kiper’s mock suggests we could see a quarterback draft pattern similar to 2005, when Alex Smith went first overall to San Francisco, while Rodgers tumbled to Green Bay at 24, and Jason Campbell landed with Washington in the late first round.
This comparison got me thinking. If we’re playing the parallel game, Sanders is clearly this year’s Rodgers — a supremely talented QB from a west coast program who elevated his team to new heights. Just like Cal hasn’t been the same since Rodgers left, Colorado will likely take a step back without Sanders under center.
Ward feels like this year’s Alex Smith — though I’m skeptical he’ll develop into the solid pro Smith eventually became.
Dart? He’s the Campbell of this class, though with considerably more upside.
While Deion Sanders probably isn’t thrilled about the idea of his son heading to the Jets organization, New York’s fresh leadership provides reasons for optimism. GM Darren Mougey remains unproven, but new head coach Aaron Glenn could be exactly what the franchise needs. And let’s be real — if the Jets have moved on from Rodgers mentally (which seems likely), they’d jump at the chance to grab Sanders at No. 7.
The real question is how far Sanders could actually fall if he gets past the Jets.
New Orleans at No. 9 might pass, potentially eyeing LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier in next year’s draft. After that, teams like the Rams or Steelers could be landing spots. Or maybe — in another parallel to Rodgers’ career arc — Sanders becomes the next Geno Smith and lands in Seattle at 18?
Quarterbacks with Sanders’ talent level simply don’t slide that far in today’s NFL.
The NFL Draft is unpredictable, but one thing’s certain: front offices aren’t letting a premium talent at the most important position fall into the 20s. Sanders might not go in the top three, but he won’t experience anything close to Rodgers’ infamous slide.
