Every sports enthusiast knows that responsible betting increases viewers’ experience and engagement tenfold. If you’re one of the many who wish to earn cash while having fun, the National Football League (NFL) futures betting might be up your alley.
Unlike traditional game-by-game wagers, futures bets let you predict long-term outcomes. This makes every snap, pass, or touchdown even more exciting as the season moves along.
Knowing the ins and outs of the field is important before dipping your toes in this exciting world. This guide will walk you through the essential aspects of NFL futures betting so you’ll have better chances of boosting your bankroll.
Timing Is Everything
You’ve got to understand how odds fluctuate through the season. This is the very foundation of successful futures wagering. It pays to stay updated with the latest information by looking at NFL regular season betting odds for a better overview. These numbers are generated through expert human insights and machine-driven algorithms that could point you in the right direction.
If you have a strong feeling about a team’s winning potential, getting in early can often get you the best odds. Conversely, waiting for how things pan out in the next few weeks provides useful insights before committing your cash to traditional and online sportsbooks.
Which NFL Futures Markets Can You Bet On?
Many futures bets are essentially season-long prop bets, for instance, player award futures and statistical leader bets. Still, these wagers may be structured and settled differently from one sportsbook to another, so always check the specific offerings and rules.
If you’re new to the world of NFL betting, sticking to popular markets may be a wise choice.
Super Bowl Winner
This is the most popular futures bet, where you predict which team will snag the Lombardi Trophy at season’s end. Odds can range from favorites around 5-1 to longshots at 200-1 or more.
Conference Champions
As the name implies, you’ll be betting on your favorite team to represent the American Football Conference (AFC) or National Football Conference (NFC) in the Super Bowl. Conference championship odds are generally more favorable than Super Bowl odds, offering a nice balance of risk and reward.
Division Winners
Each division consists of four teams, so betting on this market requires a more focused approach. Choose teams with strong home-field advantages or those that have historically dominated their division.
Team Win Totals
Sportsbooks, including betting sites, set an over/under on how many games each team will win in the regular season. This requires you to examine a team’s potential from all angles, like roster strength, coaching, schedule difficulty, and historical performance.
Individual Player Awards
These bets focus on individual awards like Most Valuable Player (MVP), Rookie of the Year, and Offensive/Defensive Player of the Year. Historically, quarterbacks have won the most MVP accolades in NFL history, with five players winning more than once. (1)
Statistical Leaders
This NFL futures betting market focuses on who will lead the league in categories like passing yards, rushing touchdowns, or sacks. Injuries can play a huge role here, so factor in a player’s condition and durability when making your picks.
The appeal of these wagering options lies in their potential for large payouts. Oddsmakers are more generous to compensate for bigger risks because you’re predicting in advance. Hit on the right longshot, and you might be looking at a massive payday.
Research Is Your Best Friend
Immerse yourself in the latest NFL news and offseason updates. Pore over stats from the previous season and stay on top of injury reports. More importantly, pay special attention to:
Coaching Changes
A new head coach or coordinator can transform a team’s performance. Study their track record and determine whether their style aligns with the team. For example, Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has brought the team to eight AFC West and six conference championships. He previously headed the Philadelphia Eagles, which recorded 130 regular season wins—the highest in the franchise’s history. (2)
Player Movement
Free agency and trades can potentially shift the balance of power. So is the loss of a key role player. Analyze how these shifts address the team’s key weaknesses or bolster their strengths.
Draft Impact
Rookies provide immediate performance boosts, which vary depending on their position. A good running back and defensive player typically uplift the team, while quarterbacks often need more time before getting in the groove.
Schedule Analysis
Beyond evaluating the opposing team’s strength, consider the timing of key matchups and potential trap games. Certain conditions may still cause players to underperform, like traveling long hours or powering through late-season weather in an outdoor stadium. Don’t be surprised if the San Franciso 49ers aren’t as great as they should be when competing against New England Patriots in the latter’s home court on a late afternoon game.
Historical Trends
Looking at previous Super Bowls can help you uncover certain patterns that oddsmakers might miss. Doing so also helps you bet on teams that overachieve and beat preseason expectations year after year.
When it comes to NFL betting, the more informed you are, the better equipped you’ll be to spot value in the futures markets.
Avoiding Common Pitfalls
An estimated 68 million Americans wagered on the 2024 Super Bowl, with each bettor spending USD$340 on average. This figure reflects a 44% increase from the previous year, as 38 states have now legalized sports betting. With this development, industry exports project more people to place their bets throughout the season. (3)
Whether you’re planning to explore or have been into NFL futures betting for some time, take heed of these common mistakes that could dampen your journey:
- Overvaluing preseason hype: Forget about flashy stats, highlight-reel plays, and training camp reports. These don’t always translate to seasonal success. Focus on how teams are addressing their weaknesses and incorporating new players and strategies.
- Ignoring value: Backing favorites may seem like a safe option, but it isn’t always the most profitable NFL betting strategy. Compare the implied probability based on the NFL odds and incorporate your own assessment to evaluate a team or individual player. Don’t be afraid to wager on multiple options if you see value in their odds.
- Chasing longshots: Who wouldn’t want a huge payout from a 100-1 bet? While tempting, these bets rarely hit. It’s better to consider spreading your bankroll across more realistic options. If you insist on putting money on a longshot, keep the stake small.
- Failing to shop for the best odds: Compare odds across multiple books before placing your bets. Small differences can mean much bigger payouts if your bet hits.
Identifying value in the futures markets takes time. You must start small, track your betting habits, and continuously refine your approach for a more enjoyable (and hopefully profitable) betting experience.
Bankroll Management
It’s crucial to develop a solid bankroll management strategy to prevent gambling problems. A good rule of thumb is to consider NFL futures betting as a long-term investment. You need to minimize losses by spreading risks instead of going all in on a single outcome. Limit each futures wager to 15% of your total betting budget for your peace of mind.
Wrapping Up
Scoring a touchdown in NFL futures betting requires patience, discipline, and a willingness to learn from both wins and losses. While taking heed of these tips can give you the upper hand, it’s only the beginning. Stay engaged with every game, gather information from experts, and fire up your analytical mind to make some bold predictions.
References
1. “Super Bowl MVP winners: Who has won the award most in NFL History?,” Source: https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/super-bowl-mvp-winners/qiv51rk0g89a1p071oxit7vxa
2. “How Andy Reid became a better coach after leaving Philadelphia, according to Hugh Douglas,” Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/coach-andy-reid-chiefs-eagles-super-bowl-lviii/
3. “Why the NFL went all in on sports gambling,” Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/10/business/nfl-super-bowl-sports-gambling/index.html